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Bidding problem, for a change.

Poll: Bidding problem, for a change. (18 member(s) have cast votes)

Bid?

  1. pass (1 votes [5.56%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.56%

  2. 4H (1 votes [5.56%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.56%

  3. 5D (16 votes [88.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 88.89%

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#1 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 06:10

MPs. Adv/expert field.


1 = nat 3+. (Obv 4+ later.)
1NT = 12-14, does not deny 4 spades.
2 = relay, inv+.
2 = 3 cards.
2 = natural, forcing.
3 = natural, forcing.
4 = obviously no worthy club stop.

What now? 4 now is a proposal to play there.
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#2 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 06:11

3NT, wtp?
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 06:17

View Posthelene_t, on 2015-January-04, 06:11, said:

3NT, wtp?


I wasn't done yet Posted Image
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#4 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 06:37

6D
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 08:59

5 looks plenty to me, we might have a shot at 12 tricks when we can discard one major into the other, but hard to know which suit breaks 3-3.
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#6 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 11:42

P's most likely shapes are 3343, or 2344, neither of which screams tricks aplenty. I'm closer to passing than bidding 6, but even I'm not that much of a wimp.
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#7 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 12:12

Opposite something like Ax KQx KJxxx Jxx, slam is very good, but would he really bid 2N with that? Lazy players might, but this looks to me like an easy 3D rebid over 2S.

I think therefore that he has either only 4 diamonds or that he has something like Qxx in clubs, so fewer working values, and maybe both.

Even opposite a great 3343 a diamond lead will offer us little hope for 12 triicks. Even AQx KJx KJxx xxx needs a lot of luck, and that is a super-max.

Only a deaf opening leader, or one looking at a 4 card.trump holding with the J, would fail to find the obvious trump lead if we bid slam now.

So I bid 5D.

The hand isn't quite good enough to make a 5C call, IMO. I'd need a major suit Queen or maybe, on an aggressive day, a Jack. Something to increase the likelihood of 6 easy major suit winners.
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#8 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 18:58

View Postwhereagles, on 2015-January-04, 06:17, said:

I wasn't done yet Posted Image


I have to agree with Helene. I would have bid 3NT and not 3.

Now in mps 5 is only the successful bid if diamonds makes exactly 11 tricks AND 3NT makes exactly 9 tricks.
I would probably take a shot at 6 now, figuring 5 would lead to a poor result most of the time.
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#9 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 19:08

View Postjogs, on 2015-January-04, 18:58, said:

I have to agree with Helene. I would have bid 3NT and not 3.

Now in mps 5 is only the successful bid if diamonds makes exactly 11 tricks AND 3NT makes exactly 9 tricks.
I would probably take a shot at 6 now, figuring 5 would lead to a poor result most of the time.


Isn't it possible 3N wasn't making? if if partber has a lock club stop, and thats far from certain, we probaby don't have 9 runners.

5 seems %.
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#10 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2015-January-04, 19:13

View Postjogs, on 2015-January-04, 18:58, said:

I have to agree with Helene. I would have bid 3NT and not 3.

Now in mps 5 is only the successful bid if diamonds makes exactly 11 tricks AND 3NT makes exactly 9 tricks.
I would probably take a shot at 6 now, figuring 5 would lead to a poor result most of the time.


Or if 5 makes and 3N goes off. Or if 5 makes an overtrick and 3N has 4 unescapable losers. Or if they both go off but 5 goes off less.

Ok, in two of the four cases we'd rather have been in a different number of diamonds, but since we can't be confident what that number is, I'd rather make the call that scores as well or better than 3N in all four potential cases rather than just one.

Given that we've described our shape perfectly and P has opted to avoid 3N (and could presumably have bid 3 if in doubt), if we still think it would have been the best contract, why not a 'new partner asking' 7N?
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2015-January-10, 12:08

Opener had

AQ6
Q84
KT73
J83

Pass was the good bid here, and it's probably logical, as it rates to be quite the struggle to come up with 11 or 12 tricks opposite a min hand, even considering the low club wastage.
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#12 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-January-10, 15:01

5 looks like a great contract, specially at IMPs
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#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2015-January-10, 16:35

Well, it's MPs. You need some luck regardless. In practice trumps didn't break, meaning even 4 is down.
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#14 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2015-January-11, 10:46

A bad hand for the system, really. At the tables where 1D-1H-1NT DOES deny 4 spades, responder bid 3NT immediately, and the opening lead was probably a spade. Now that you've pinpointed the club lead you are forced to play in diamonds, and all you can do is hope for a few of the others to go down in 3NT to get a few matchpoints back.
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#15 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2015-January-11, 17:06

View PostSiegmund, on 2015-January-11, 10:46, said:

A bad hand for the system, really. At the tables where 1D-1H-1NT DOES deny 4 spades, responder bid 3NT immediately, and the opening lead was probably a spade. Now that you've pinpointed the club lead you are forced to play in diamonds, and all you can do is hope for a few of the others to go down in 3NT to get a few matchpoints back.

Where do you play bridge? The opps hold 9 clubs headed by the AKQ10 and 6 spades headed by the J10, and you expect a spade lead? Really? Let me guess, you are an up the line bidder.
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#16 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2015-January-11, 17:53

Actually, a pair which would have bid 1S with 4 of them, and has a competent NMF continuation structure, had a good chance of stopping in 3D here --- or getting to 5D if South pretty much ignores the warning signs. 3NT wouldn't happen.

Same auction as OP, through 2S, but with different meanings.

1D-1H
1N-2C
2H-2S 2H=both weak 11-12 and 3 cards in hearts...2S=spade control further probe
3D Since opener doesn't have clubs stopped, 3D is default, and Responder might choose to bail out.
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#17 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2015-January-12, 02:30

View Postmikeh, on 2015-January-11, 17:06, said:

The opps hold 9 clubs headed by the AKQ10 and 6 spades headed by the J10, and you expect a spade lead?


Full hand record


[size=2]                                            [/size] 4      AQ6                                 

 West   Q84                                 

 All    K1073                               

        J83                                 

 93            J1087                        

 92            KJ105                        

 J942          8                            

 A10942        KQ65                         

        K542                                

        A763                                

        AQ65                                

        7                                   

                                            

                                            

  Pair  Contr     Ld     Result    Score    

  1 --                      Bye  21,8       

  2 32  5D   N -2 CK       -200   3,0 29,0  

  3 34  3N   N -1 SJ       -100  13,0 19,0  

  4 36  3N   N -1 CK       -100  13,0 19,0  

  5 38  3N   N -1 CK       -100  13,0 19,0  

  6 31  2D   N +1 CK    110      26,0  6,0  

  7 33  1N   N  = C5     90      22,0 10,0  

  8 35  3N   N -1 S5       -100  13,0 19,0  

  9 37  2D   N +1 SJ    110      26,0  6,0  

 11 29  3N   N -1 CK       -100  13,0 19,0  

 12 22  2Cx  W +1 H8       -380   0,0 32,0  

 13 24  1H   S +2 S6    140      32,0  0,0  

 14 26  3N   N -2 CK       -200   3,0 29,0  

 15 28  4D   N  = CK    130      30,0  2,0  

 16 21  3N   N -1 CK       -100  13,0 19,0  

 17 23  3N   N -1 SJ       -100  13,0 19,0  

 18 25  2D   N +1 CK    110      26,0  6,0  

 19 27  3N   N -1 SJ       -100  13,0 19,0  


[size=2]                                            [/size]


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#18 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2015-February-10, 19:44

View PostPhil, on 2015-January-04, 19:08, said:

Isn't it possible 3N wasn't making? if if partber has a lock club stop, and thats far from certain, we probaby don't have 9 runners.

5 seems %.


I should have mentioned that possibly. At the table I don't remember ever knowing that 3NT goes down with 5 of a minor making.
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