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Play problem - which line is better? After a pre-empt

#1 User is offline   zenbiddist 

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Posted 2019-May-12, 20:48



You're playing teams.

West leads 6, which East covers with the 7. You have six top tricks.
If you duck, East plays back K, and West shows out. If you duck again, East plays Q and West shells a heart (but their signalling is essentially non-existent).

What's your line?
A) play LHO for the Q (maybe starting with K and unblock 9 from dummy)
B) play a club to the A and cover on the way back (presuming RHO follows to the second round), hoping K is onside if you lose to Qx.
C) play two top clubs, falling back on K onside
D) other (what do you think is best?)
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#2 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2019-May-12, 22:26

Let's see:Plan A: 77.45% given the diamond split situation.
Plan B: 35.29 you get 5 club tricks. 16.18 clubs are 2-2, Q wrong, 10/14 HK is right, So +11.56. 32.35% clubs are 3-1, 9/14 HK is right, so +20.80. About 67.65%.Plan A > plan B
Plan C: 45.59% you get 5 club tricks (you have to cash ace first instead of K on this line, which is much worse on the 4-0, RHO being way more likely void. But on the 3-1s you need to be in hand on the 2nd club to lead a low heart to Q, otherwise you get blocked). +20.80 for clubs 3-1 HK onside. About 66.39. Again plan A better.

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