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Your lead

Poll: Your lead (25 member(s) have cast votes)

Which suit do you lead ?

  1. Spades (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. Hearts (1 votes [4.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.00%

  3. Diamonds (12 votes [48.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 48.00%

  4. Clubs (12 votes [48.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 48.00%

Would knowing that S would double 5H suggest a lead?

  1. No or unsure (23 votes [92.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 92.00%

  2. Yes (please comment) (2 votes [8.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.00%

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#1 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 06:59



MP, partner is a solid bidder.

Please vote your choice of lead (first question)?

Now imagine that East accidentally bid 5 which was doubled by South before East managed to correct. The TD allows the change to 5 and bidding proceeds as shown. Does the (unauthorised) information that South would double 5 suggest the lead of one suit over another (second question)?
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 07:06

I'd lead my stiff club without any UI (would be worried about a double diamond void). The UI in hearts suggests a heart might not be best, but I wouldn't ever lead one anyway.
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#3 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 08:06

I think that you should have polled the first question without telling us about the UI. You could then mention the UI oce you had received initial responses.

But it looks to me as though a club is the best shot, since a diamond will not stand up and a forcing defence looks unlikely.
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#4 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 09:18

pescetom writes 'MP, partner is a solid bidder.Please vote your choice of lead (first question)?Now imagine that East accidentally bid 5 which was doubled by South before East managed to correct. The TD allows the change to 5 and bidding proceeds as shown. Does the (unauthorised) information that South would double 5 suggest the lead of one suit over another (second question)?'
+++++++++++++++++++++
I rank
1. 2 Partner's trick might disappear.
2. 7.
3. 3.
4. 2.
Agree with Tramticket that a poll would probably show that a lead is a logical alternative. If so -- and a lead would help declarer -- then the director might insist that I lead one (although, in practice, I wouldn't have)..

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#5 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 10:07

View Postnige1, on 2019-June-27, 09:18, said:

1. 2 Partner's trick might disappear.


Well it might - if partner bid 5 on a seven-card suit! If he has more than seven then we ain't got a diamond trick.
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#6 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 10:30

Thanks for replies so far. Hope there will be some more.

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-27, 07:06, said:

I'd lead my stiff club without any UI (would be worried about a double diamond void). The UI in hearts suggests a heart might not be best, but I wouldn't ever lead one anyway.

A double diamond void is maybe pessimistic, but yes they can't have more than 1 or 2 and I would be very worried about a single void. My first thought about the UI was that it might slightly increase the chance of finding diamonds 1-1, in which case there is a case for a diamond lead before North's card disappears on the hearts. But it might also decrease the chance of them holding 2 diamonds at all so I doubt it would change my judgement much. I'm interested to see how others think on this.


View PostTramticket, on 2019-June-27, 08:06, said:

I think that you should have polled the first question without telling us about the UI. You could then mention the UI oce you had received initial responses.

I would have liked to, but I haven't had good luck adding a second poll later and also people here seem to get bored with discussions very quickly B-) I don't think it will do much damage in practice - if people think that they can't answer question 1 honestly after reading question 2 I'm sure they will say so. In my club, at least, the LAs were pretty clear but I wanted a reality check with the rest of the world.



View Postnige1, on 2019-June-27, 09:18, said:

Agree with Tramticket that a poll would probably show that a lead is a logical alternative. If so -- and a lead would help declarer -- then the director might insist that I lead one (although, in practice, I wouldn't have)..

Let's discuss director's options in a specific Laws discussion later. For now I just want bridge judgement about which lead is best and whether any lead is suggested by the UI.
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#7 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 11:17

View Postpescetom, on 2019-June-27, 10:30, said:

A double diamond void is maybe pessimistic, but yes they can't have more than 1 or 2...


You described your partner as a "solid bidder". Partned jumped to the five level, vulnerable, in the sandwich seat opposite a passed partner. Would your "solid bidder" partner do this with a seven-card suit? It feels unlikely that opps wil have two diamonds. A double void doesn't look pessimistic to me.
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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 11:21

View PostTramticket, on 2019-June-27, 11:17, said:

You described your partner as a "solid bidder". Partned jumped to the five level, vulnerable, in the sandwich seat opposite a passed partner. Would your "solid bidder" partner do this with a seven-card suit? It feels unlikely that opps wil have two diamonds. A double void doesn't look pessimistic to me.


Indeed, I would expect 8+ with 9 quite likely and 7 vanishingly unlikely vul against not for a sound bidder.
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#9 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 14:45

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-27, 11:21, said:

Indeed, I would expect 8+ with 9 quite likely and 7 vanishingly unlikely vul against not for a sound bidder.


"Sound bidder" is an observation of his usual performance, not a judgement of this specific bid. He knows that opps are forcing to game and he doesn't know you have 4 diamonds. If I were his partner I would expect 8 diamonds but without ruling out the much more frequent 7 or the vanishingly infrequent 9. For the rest I know the layout and so any comments are flawed. Tomorrow I will post it and you can judge for yourselves.
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#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 15:31

View Postpescetom, on 2019-June-27, 14:45, said:

"Sound bidder" is an observation of his usual performance, not a judgement of this specific bid. He knows that opps are forcing to game and he doesn't know you have 4 diamonds. If I were his partner I would expect 8 diamonds but without ruling out the much more frequent 7 or the vanishingly infrequent 9. For the rest I know the layout and so any comments are flawed. Tomorrow I will post it and you can judge for yourselves.


You say 2 was GF, I presume it was nat and GF, which makes much more unlikely but not impossible the only hand type where I might do it on 7 (7-5).
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#11 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 15:33

This is the wrong vulnerability for partner to be sacrificing. Your partner has taken the position that 5D has real play, it must make or go down 1. I'd make the following assumptions:

  • Partner has a full opener, thus allowing them to count most of the HCP.
  • Partner has a spade void, thus giving 5D real play and making the push into 5S a potentially lethal one. (Partner has good reason to expect the break is bad after all.)
  • If the previous two are true, partner is probably bidding 5D with well positioned clubs. Otherwise how does 5D have any play?


This is enough for me to lead clubs. But at this point, I'm really not certain that partner has any more than 7 diamonds headed by the AKQ. But, the opponents aren't playing 6S for a reason... If North has a diamond void, solid clubs, and let's be honest, knows that hearts are playing well.... What's there to think about? Something has to give.

I'm leading my singleton club, because partner won't play me for it if I don't, and if we're not defeating 5S on a club lead, I need a new partner.
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#12 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 15:46

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-27, 15:31, said:

You say 2 was GF, I presume it was nat and GF


Either natural 5+card or artificial without 5+card or .
But it's unlikely to be artificial as he would probably have been able to splinter in .
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#13 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 16:35

As a follow up to my previous post, and upon further consideration, I think the distributions on this hand are actually pretty marked. Give or take a card between Clubs and Hearts.

N: 3316
E: 0274
S: 6412
W: 4441

North probably has something like JXX of hearts, AK or AJ of spades, and KQTXXX, KQJXXX or KJTXXX of clubs and a small diamond.
East probably has 4 clubs with the rest of honours, AKQXXXX of diamonds, and two losing hearts. This would have good play for 5D opposite a shortness in clubs. And in fact, 5D makes on this hand.
South has an uninspiring 6-card spade suit (KXXXXX) with AKXX of hearts.

Partner could have the queen of hearts in the doubleton, or North could have QJX etc... There's really not much room for variance on this hand. I suppose partner could also be missing the Ace of clubs, at which point, isn't 6S just too good not to play?
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#14 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 16:40

View PostKingCovert, on 2019-June-27, 15:33, said:

This is the wrong vulnerability for partner to be sacrificing. Your partner has taken the position that 5D has real play, it must make or go down 1. I'd make the following assumptions:

  • Partner has a full opener, thus allowing them to count most of the HCP.
  • Partner has a spade void, thus giving 5D real play and making the push into 5S a potentially lethal one. (Partner has good reason to expect the break is bad after all.)
  • If the previous two are true, partner is probably bidding 5D with well positioned clubs. Otherwise how does 5D have any play?


This is enough for me to lead clubs. But at this point, I'm really not certain that partner has any more than 7 diamonds headed by the AKQ. But, the opponents aren't playing 6S for a reason... If North has a diamond void, solid clubs, and let's be honest, knows that hearts are playing well.... What's there to think about? Something has to give.

I'm leading my singleton club, because partner won't play me for it if I don't, and if we're not defeating 5S on a club lead, I need a new partner.


I like most of your logic, but you might not be beating 6 spades here. What's partner supposed to do with say -, -, AKQJ10xxxx, xxxx ? Even if he has better clubs with a trick that probably won't be enough.
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#15 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 17:00

UI makes club lead a little more likely of success
declare presumably has A and shortness
with A they might be in slam or doubled 5
Sarcasm is a state of mind
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#16 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2019-June-27, 17:01

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-27, 16:40, said:

I like most of your logic, but you might not be beating 6 spades here. What's partner supposed to do with say -, -, AKQJ10xxxx, xxxx ? Even if he has better clubs with a trick that probably won't be enough.


Are you sure that hand should bid 5D? That hand wants to sacrifice surely? But is 5D really an effective sacrifice? You can still count most of the remaining points, and now the opponents are cold for either grand. You can't assume that either of them has a diamond void of course, so you don't bid 7D, but 6D seems better. Although admittedly, 6D is an obvious sacrifice suggesting slam is makeable given the vulnerability..... I'm not sure... I just don't like 5D with that hand. I'd rather pass or bid less.
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#17 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2019-June-28, 06:25

View PostKingCovert, on 2019-June-27, 16:35, said:

As a follow up to my previous post, and upon further consideration, I think the distributions on this hand are actually pretty marked. Give or take a card between Clubs and Hearts.

N: 3316
E: 0274
S: 6412
W: 4441

North probably has something like JXX of hearts, AK or AJ of spades, and KQTXXX, KQJXXX or KJTXXX of clubs and a small diamond.
East probably has 4 clubs with the rest of honours, AKQXXXX of diamonds, and two losing hearts. This would have good play for 5D opposite a shortness in clubs. And in fact, 5D makes on this hand.
South has an uninspiring 6-card spade suit (KXXXXX) with AKXX of hearts.


Chapeaux: you only slightly misread the majors, and even that perhaps because you were expecting different bidding if N holds 4-card . But bridge is fascinating because subtle changes can make all the difference, and NS don't even have game against optimal defence here, see below.
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#18 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2019-June-28, 06:32

Here's the full layout.



At the table, West lead and NS made 5-1 which was 59%.
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#19 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2019-June-28, 08:30

View Postpescetom, on 2019-June-28, 06:25, said:

Chapeaux: you only slightly misread the majors, and even that perhaps because you were expecting different bidding if N holds 4-card . But bridge is fascinating because subtle changes can make all the difference, and NS don't even have game against optimal defence here, see below.


Well, I had a massive hint. You did make the thread after all.

I did suspect 5-5 in the majors at first, with 4S in the North. But yes, I then re-evaluated and determined that 2C denied it. That's why I placed the major suit values how I did.

5S is kind of a gutsy bid with only 3 card support after all.... I wish I got hands like this right at the table though :(

Hahahaha... My partners always get mad at me for placing cards! Standard defense is the club, and if I didn't make that lead regardless of this analysis, they'd shoot me. I'm still learning though, so can't blame them.
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#20 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-28, 09:01

View Postpescetom, on 2019-June-28, 06:32, said:

Here's the full layout.



At the table, West lead and NS made 5-1 which was 59%.


How much do you get for 5-2 ?

And I don't think anybody is seriously leading a heart,and not really considering it for long.
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